Monday, December 10, 2007

Google

I graduated form college back in May, and since grad school doesn't start until January, I've had ample time to indulge in one of my passions- the stock market.

I started getting serious about stocks about this time last year. As a Christmas gift I even asked my parents for cash so I could open an online brokerage account. Since, I have read numerous investment books (everything from Graham to Cramer), spent many nights reading about monetary policy and other macroeconomic factors, and now find myself watching CNBC far more than I should (notice the post below about Erin Burnett).

If I can share one piece of advice, it would be to buy Google stock. Yea it trades for 720 bucks a share and yes everyone and their mother knows about it, but this is something really special. Even if you're not into stocks (but at least know what a stock is) you've probably asked your parents, "Why didn't you buy Microsoft stock years ago!?...we'd be rich!" Well, here is the opportunity to have a rebuttal to that question years from now.

The following are examples of three companies who I think Google will have similar lives to. I did a little research and figured what $10k invested twenty years ago in these three companies would be worth today:

Berkshire Hathaway.
Stock price Jan 1, 1988 = $3150.
Today's closing price = $149000.
Annualized return = 21.27%
$10k invested 20 years ago is worth: $473224.86

Microsoft (Numbers adjusted for stock splits).
Stock price Jan 1, 1988 = $0.39
Today's closing price = $34.76
Annualized return = 25.17%
$10k invested 20 years ago is worth: $891261.29
**Note: This stock peaked in '00 around $55, which translated into a 51.05% return over those 12 years. That 10k was worth $1410745.77 in '00.

Wal-Mart (Adjusted for stock splits).
Stock price Jan 1, 1988 = $3.41
Today's closing price = $49.43
Annualized return = 14.30%
10k invested 20 years ago is worth: $144852.04
**Note: Peaked in '00 around $69. You do the math...

These aren't even the biggest winners of all time, I only chose these because they are household names. Just in the last 5 years you could have matched these gains by investing $10k into Apple or Research in Motion. But my point is, Google has the chance to be that stock everyone wishes they had bought years ago. The current price may seem expensive, and it is at $720!, but it seemed expensive when it IPOed at $75 and it seemed expensive when I bought it at $500 and it'll be expensive when it's trading at $1000 and beyond. But considering the remaining growth potential Google has by increasing their market share of the $600billion/year advertising industry, the fact that Google will probably end up taking over the wireless market (once its done taking over the internet of course), and that the word 'Google' has worked its way into the lexicon of every language in the modernized world, there is no reason not to own a part of it. If you don't do it for yourself at least do it for your kids.

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